Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Founding Greenpeace


I've been arguing at WUWT. Quite a few Moyhu posts begin that way, but this time, I've been sin-binned. I must be the first at WUWT to be binned for the offence of querying the accuracy of a Greenpeace publication.

Apparently, I'm still a paid troll. So I guess I should regard it as long service leave :)

Anyway the topic was Patrick Moore. WUWT claims him as a co-founder of Greenpeace. I drew attention to a letter which he wrote in 1971, introducing himself to the “Don’t Make a Wave Committee”, and asking about sailing on the upcoming voyage of the Greenpeace.

Now it seems very odd to me to be writing such a letter to an organisation you are supposed to have founded. Something didn't add up.

So, argument ensued. The principal grievance seems to be that Greenpeace is disowning him because of his change of views, and current activism in contrary causes, as shown by WUWT's enthusiasm for his tour of Australia. More of that later. Greenpeace's currently unfavorable view is expressed here.

Patrick Moore's own view is expressed here. I must say that as an account of the history, it seems to be fair enough (except perhaps to Paul Watson), and obviously he was there. So I quoted almost exclusively from it at WUWT (and here).

Sunday, August 17, 2014

July GISS Temp down by 0.10°C


GISS has posted its July estimate for global temperature anomaly. It fell from 0.62°C in June to 0.52°C in July. TempLS declined by a slightly smaller amount. This is definitely more moderate than the high temps of May.

The comparison maps are below the jump.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

TempLS global temp down 0.066°C in July


TempLS dipped in July; from 0.577°C (June) to
0.511°C.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

CO2 accumulation accounted for by emission and land use

In a previous post, I showed the accumulation of mass of carbon (as CO2) in the atmosphere (using annual Mauna Loa data with Law Dome ice core data), on the same scale as the mass of carbon as fossil fuels (and cement making) that we have emitted. It makes it very obvious that the rise in CO2 is associated with our emission, and that we have at most stages emitted more than has accumulated.

However, the match is not exact. The CO2 did start to rise while our emissions were small. I remarked that this is likely due to land clearance, which transfers C from the plant biomass to air. A commenter suggested that I include that in the plot.

So I do that here. I am using the land use data of Houghton, from the CDIAC site. It goes from 1850 to 2005. I have assumed for plotting that annual increments since 2005 are unchanged (they were fairly stable pre-2005). It is an estimate of nett carbon emitted due to land use changes in general, including reforestation etc.

This allows me to do a separate calculation of the airborne fraction (AF) - the fraction of emission that stays in the air. I find that the added CO2 rises very linearly with total anthropogenic addition, and the AF is 44%, with very little sign of change.

So here is the revised plot of mass of atmospheric C and the anthropogenic additions (see previous post for scale factors). As before, the light red curve shadowing observed C is the anthro added C, scaled by AF of 0.44.


There is a slight dip in ice core CO2 1600-1800, which could be due to the LIA,


Below the jump I'll show a plot for more recent years, and the airborne fraction plots.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

That CO2 added to the air is ours

For some reason there has been an ongoing patter of theories about how the recent increase in CO2 in the air is due to natural causes, and nothing to do with the 400 Gt of fossil fuel that we have have brought to the surface and burnt.

I wrote here about the somewhat related "Temperature drives CO2" meme. And I wrote here a few days ago about a weird revival, involving a total misreading by blogger Hockey Schtick of a recent paper on local CO2 perturbations, and the vanishing of that thread.

Vanishing is a relative term nowadays, and sure enough, the story reappeared at WUWT as if nothing had happened. Various oddities ensued; HS turned up to say that his thread hadn't been canned; it was only resting. And the original author, Denica Bozhinova, turned up to say some of the things that had been disappeared at HS. Her paper had been grossly misinterpreted.

Anyway, the usual folk continued as if nothing had happened, with the usual story that natural fluxes greatly outweighed human. I responded thus. But the most direct refutation is the simple graph of mass changes over the years. This is too rarely seen, though there is a good article and plot at SkS, which I cited.

So I did my own. Emissions data (including cement making) is from CDIAC, including BP estimates for 2011 and 2012 (no 2013 yet). CO2 ice core data from Law Dome (Dethridge, via CDIAC), and recent from Mauna Loa Scripps, using annual averages. I converted ppmv to Gt C using the factor 1 ppm CO2 = 2.13 Gton C. I found the following units conversion table useful:
Gtons CGtons CO2ppmv CO2
1 Gton C=13.6660.433
1 Gton CO2=0.27210.128
1 ppmv CO2=2.137.811

Here is the plot:


Update - I've added a pale red echo of the emissions curve, displaced to match pre-industrial, and multiplied by the factor 0.57 used by Scripps (see below) to account for airborne fraction. You'll see that the air CO2 starts to rise a little earlier. This is likely the effect of land clearances.

It must be really hard to sell the story that the CO2 response is just natural variation, nothing to do with what we emitted. I'll show more plots below the jump.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Portal for Australian BoM AWS stations

This is another in a series of portals - lists of links designed to make datasets more easily accessed. I'm planning a master list to put up as a permanent page.

The Bureau of Meteorology has an extensive network of Australian AWS stations that report mostly every half hour. The current data covers about three days, and is arranged by states. Here is Victoria; on the top bar are links to the other state lists. These data are also aggregated as daily data, by the month. The files can be accessed from the current data, but there are quite a few steps. The data is of course unadjusted, and files for the last twelve or so months are displayed.

The portal gives a direct link for each station to the "latest" file, which is the daily data for the current month. At the bottom of the table there are links to the earlier months, and also to climate averages and extremes.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Adjusting the past.


An oddity. About 36 hours ago I looked in on Paul Homewood's site, and saw this credulous post. I followed the link to ClimateChangeDispatch, which said:
"A new post on The Hockey Schtick reviews a new paper “that finds only about 3.75% [15 ppm] of the CO2 in the lower atmosphere is man-made from the burning of fossil fuels, and thus, the vast remainder of the 400 ppm atmospheric CO2 is from land-use changes and natural sources such as ocean outgassing and plant respiration.”"

It linked to the source, HockeySchtick. There I read an article discussing what seemed to be just a paper on local measurements of CO2 fluctuation as indicated by C14, along with the perturbing effect of nuclear reactor C14. But yes, HS made that claim, and there was a lively discussion involving sensible people like Ferdinand Engelbeen and David Appell saying sensible things about CO2. About 36 comments when I looked, but no-one seemed to notice that the paper just wasn't saying anything about global CO2. Along the way David Appell was banned for saying that the oceans were acidifying.

I saw later another credulous post at Bishop Hill, but here the commenters seemed to see through it fairly quickly. The post, with its links are still not modified.

Anyway, this morning, local time, I tried to follow a link, and got this:
"Sorry, the page you were looking for in this blog does not exist."

And sure enough, just vanished. No explanation, that I could see. Gone. But the linking pages still make their claims without modification.

I wonder if David Appell is still banned.